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Analysis: What will drive medical inflation in 2017?

The Aon Asia Market Review 2017 report forecasts a net medical inflation rate of 6% in Asia for 2017, marginally down on the 6.3% recorded last year.

Within the region several countries have the unenviable distinction of posting double digit forecast increases for 2017. These include Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea and Vietnam. Conversely, the key markets of China (3%) and Singapore (8.7%) are forecast to experience significant declines in medical inflation year-on-year.

The now well-established drivers of medical inflation globally include an ageing population, the proliferation of chronic or non-communicable diseases and advanced medical technology. All of these cost-drivers are evident in Asia.

Across the region, two of the chronic diseases most responsible for lost productivity and premature death are hypertension and type two diabetes. The World Health Organisation reports that high blood pressure is the leading risk factor for death, claiming 1.5 million lives each year in southeast Asia. One in three adults in the region is hypertensive.

The Asian Diabetes Prevention Initiative reports that 60% of the global diabetic population lives in Asia, with 113.9 million adults in China affected, representing 11.6% of the adult population. In 1980, the corresponding figure was less than 1%. In India, 65.1 million adults have diabetes. These numbers give China and India the dubious distinction of having the largest number of diabetes sufferers in the world. The high prevalence of these chronic illnesses is largely attributable to modifiable lifestyle behaviours.

Evidence suggests that middle-class consumers in emerging markets increase their spending on healthcare. This is attributable to several convergent factors: adaptation of western lifestyle, demand for improved health outcomes, inadequate public healthcare systems, and proliferation of private healthcare providers inclusive of advanced medical technology.

To illustrate the above point, international consultancy firm McKinsey has forecast that consumer healthcare spending in China will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% between 2005 and 2025 with India in close proximity of 9% over the same period.

Given the proliferation of chronic illness and the contributory impact of modifiable lifestyle behaviours related to diet, exercise, alcohol, tobacco, and stress, it is encouraging to note that medical plan insurers in several markets are increasing their commitment to wellness-related services. Looking to the future, these services will need to be more targeted, both with regard to addressing the co-morbidities that are driving the claims experience and engaging those demographics most at risk.

You can download the Aon Asia Market Review here.

Posted on: 08/02/2017 UTC+08:00


News

First REIT, the SGX healthcare real estate investment trust owned by Indonesia’s Lippo Group, has reported a 0.9% rise in distribution per unit (DPU) of S$0.0214 for the third quarter of the year.
Metlifecare, New Zealand’s second-largest listed retirement village operator, plans to spend NZ$240 million (US$167.2 million) to develop a waterfront retirement village at Scott Point, in the Auckland suburb of Hobsonville.
Thonburi Healthcare Group, the country's third largest hospital operator, has inked an MoU with Korea’s Green Cross MS and Green Cross Laboratories.
At its annual general meeting at the end of last week, Gordon Ballantyne, new chief executive of Healthscope, Australia’s second largest private healthcare operator, said that he expected current private hospital market conditions to continue in the short term.
Hong Kong-listed healthcare company China Wah Yan Healthcare plans to consolidate its shares. The move has been pushed onto the company to comply with trading requirements.
Monash IVF Group, Australia’s second largest fertility treatment provider, has appointed David Morris as the CEO and managing director effective from 13 November. After eight years, James Thiedeman stepped down in May.
SGX-listed Singapore Medical Group, a multi-disciplinary specialist healthcare services provider has announced its latest acquisition.
Malaysia's Top Glove is on the acquisition trail. The world’s largest rubber glove manufacture has signed an MoU to buy all the ordinary shares of Eastern Press for M$47.25 million (US$11.18 million) in cash. Eastern Press is principally engaged as a printer and supplier of packaging material. It is also the major supplier of packaging material to Top Glove's subsidiaries in Malaysia.



Analysis

Is there a case to be made for a merger between Metlifecare and Summerset Group, New Zealand’s second and third-largest listed retirement village operators? First NZ Capital reckons so and analyst Arie Dekker makes an eloquent case for it in a new research note.
Stephenson Harwood’s Tom Platts, Ben Hickson and Su Wai Phyo report on key changes implemented by the Myanmar government to facilitate much-needed foreign investment in the country’s healthcare sector.
In the lead-up to the UN’s International Day of the Older Persons on 1 October, Jason Sadler, president, Cigna International Markets, looks at the impact of an aging population on the world’s healthcare system and the role that digital technology will play in meeting this new challenge.
By 2042 there will be more over-65s in Asia than the populations of the Eurozone and North America combined. We look at the business opportunities this creates.
Albert Wong argues that biomedical technology should not be ignored and explains how the Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation can support it.
Jacob Pope explains why medical tourism remains one of the region’s most significant industries.
APACMed’s Fredrik Nyberg looks at how local and multinational IVD companies are developing novel solutions for Asia’s unique needs.
It is perhaps a curious line in the sand to draw, but the new hospital in Dunedin, the second-largest city in the South Island of New Zealand, is gearing up to be a significant battle in the use of private-public partnership funding in the APAC region.


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